By Jackson Okata
Nairobi, Kenya: A new report by the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP), is warning that the world risks experiencing a catastrophic temperature rise of up to 3.1°C if the huge emissions gap is not closed.
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024 shows that increased emissions would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century.
The report wants nations to collectively commit to cutting 42 percent off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – and back it up with rapid action – or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years
States are expected to submit their updated NDCs early next year ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.
UNEP warns that extreme temperature rises would bring debilitating impacts to people, planet, and economies.
Speaking during the launch of the report, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said that some parts of the world are burning and drowning with people struggling to cope and, in many cases, to survive – particularly the poorest and most vulnerable.
“As things stand, current NDCs put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.6-2.8°C this century. Even worse, policies currently in place are insufficient to meet even these NDCs. If nothing changes, we are heading for a temperature rise of 3.1°C” said Andersen.
She added “The consequences for people, societies, and economies of such extreme warming are unthinkable. And we must remember that it will be impossible to meet the goals of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework when raging wildfires, ruinous storms and creeping desertification and land degradation are devastating species and their habitats’’.
Andersen said the new NDCs and their implementation must collectively cut 42 percent of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C.
“Looking out to 2035, emissions must fall by 57 percent. In annual terms, we need to shave 7.5 percent off emissions every year until 2035, a figure that will grow with each year of inaction” she said.
The UNEP boss says nations can deliver emission cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors, and more.
The report shows that there is technical potential for emissions cuts in 2030 up to 31 gigatons of CO2 equivalent – which is around 52 percent of emissions in 2023 – and 41 gigatons in 2035. This would bridge the gap to 1.5°C in both years, at a cost below US$200 per ton of CO2 equivalent.
Further, the report shows that increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could deliver 27 percent of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38 percent in 2035.
“Action on forests could deliver around 20 percent of the potential in both years. Other strong options include efficiency measures, electrification, and fuel switching in the buildings, transport, and industry sectors” reads the report in part.
One of COP28’s targets was the triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, and conserving, protecting, and restoring nature and ecosystems.
Andersen says It is still technically possible to meet the 1.5°C goal, but only with a G20-led massive global mobilization to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, starting today
Current commitments for 2030 are not being met; even if they are met, temperature rise would only be limited to 2.6-2.8°C
The 2.6°C scenario is based on the full implementation of current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming.
Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming.
The report says additional net-zero pledges to full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs could limit global warming to 1.9°C, but there is currently low confidence in the implementation of these net-zero pledges.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the emissions gap is not an abstract notion.
“There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinderboxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods” said Guterres.
He added “Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.”
The report also looks at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28 percent by 2030 and 37 percent from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs.
“Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable, and prosperous world. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved, and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot”, said Andersen.
