By Henry Owino
Nairobi, Kenya: In the upcoming four months, the East Africa region will continue to see substantial rainfall and high temperatures. At least eight nations in the area are predicted to experience more significant precipitation from June through September.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC-IGAD) has identified certain locations as being most likely to receive above-average rainfall. These include Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, most of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan.
According to Dr. Guleid Artan, the director of ICPAC-IGAD, the start of the rainy season is predicted to be early in central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. Contrarily, a delayed start is likely in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan.
“The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) stands as a region that is highly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, which poses significant challenges to the resilience of our communities,” Dr Artan said.
“Let me emphasize here that the forecasted wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 echo the patterns of 1998 and 2010 This highlights the level of impact especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which may experience impacts of floods,” the Director- ICPAC cautions.
On the other hand, Dr. Artan revealed that parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas over western Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions.
Again, the temperature forecast for the season shows a probability of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, particularly over; northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
“As we observe these recurring extreme climate events, it is important to acknowledge the pivotal role played by early warning systems which serve as key instruments of preparedness, guiding us through climate variability. Through our operations, ICPAC continues to provide actionable climate information that is relevant and key for Early Action,” Dr. Artan emphasizes.
The IGAD’s ICPAC department is committed to disseminating information on early warning signs to help countries in advance to prepare for any adverse effects and possible ways of averting losses.
