By Scovian Lillian
Nairobi, Kenya: The hunger crisis is likely to worsen in the Horn of Africa as dry conditions persist into the long rains season of March to May this year, with below-normal rainfall expected in most parts of the region, according to a new technical report released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) on 22, February.
The report analysis of global climate model predictions from 7 Global Producing Centres (GPCs) indicates that drier-than-normal conditions are most likely to continue over the drought-affected regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia with enhanced probability for below-normal rainfall expected in parts of Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. Besides, wetter than normal conditions are expected over the cross-border areas of Ethiopia and South Sudan, north-western Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania.
It further shows no favored rainfall category with predictions indicating equal chances of below, normal, and above normal rainfall in other parts of the GHA region, including parts of central to western Kenya, north-eastern and southwestern Uganda, northern Burundi, central and northern Tanzania, and eastern South Sudan.
Delegates who gathered in Nairobi- Kenya on the 22 February for the 63rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 63) examined the forecast for the March to May (MAM) 2023 season which points towards depressed rainfall and high temperatures.
They noted that the March to May season constitutes an important rainfall season, especially in the equatorial parts of the GHA where it contributes up to 60 percent of the total annual rainfall.
“Even if the general conditions for the season do not look favorable, people can still take advantage of rainfall. This is why I urge all to consult our weekly and monthly forecasts that have high predictability”, said Guleid Artan ICPAC Director.
ICPAC’s analysis further indicates raised chances of a delayed start of the rainfall season (the “onset”) over the north-eastern part of Tanzania and raised chances of an early onset over much of western South Sudan whereas probabilities favor normal onset timing, with delayed or early onset only in small pockets.
IGAD’s Executive Secretary, Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu called for an immediate scaling-up of humanitarian and risk reduction efforts. “National governments, humanitarian and development actors must adopt a no-regret approach before it’s too late”.
Mohammed Mukhier, Director for Africa at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, (IFRC) said: “This prolonged and recurrent climate change-induced droughts will further worsen other existing, mutually exacerbating humanitarian challenges in the region, including the ongoing hunger crisis, the impacts of COVID-19 and internal displacement.
We need an all-hands-on-deck approach to strengthen food systems, livelihoods, and climate resilience.”
More so, the Regional Drought Response Plan for the Horn of Africa dated 23, January by the World Food Programme indicates that 22 million people are acutely food insecure and 5.1 million children are acutely malnourished.
This year, the World Food Programme (WFP) is urgently calling for USD 2.4 billion to help avert a major humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa and support 8.8 million people affected by the drought with regular life-saving relief.
In Kenya alone, the East African region, the United Nations, and humanitarian partners are appealing for $472.6 million to help 4.3 million drought-affected people in 2023, in support of the Government-led response, as the crisis is expected to worsen.
According to the report, the probability of drier-than-normal rainfall is also enhanced for parts of Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Tanzania, and western South Sudan. On the other hand, wetter than normal conditions are expected over the cross-border areas of Ethiopia and South Sudan, north-western Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania.
Warmer than normal temperatures are likely to be experienced across the region, particularly over Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-western South Sudan, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, northern and western Kenya, and parts of south-eastern and western Tanzania.
