By Jackson Okata
As Donald Trump prepares for his second term in office as the US President, African countries are closely reflecting on the lasting consequences of his first term. The Trump administration’s policies, which were marked by isolationism, protectionism, and a focus on domestic interests, left a profound impact.
Looking ahead, the thought and fear among many African leaders and analysts is that Trump’s second term could exacerbate existing challenges while complicating Africa’s efforts to tackle critical issues like economic development, social justice, environmental sustainability, and human rights.
Environmental policies and immigration ban: A global concern for Africa
The Trump administration’s environmental record was marked by a disregard for climate science, rollbacks of environmental protections, and the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. These policies raised significant concerns for African countries, which are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including droughts, desertification, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events.
In a second term, Trump’s stance on climate change is unlikely to change. His administration’s prioritization of fossil fuel production, deregulation, and its disinterest in international climate cooperation could continue to undermine efforts to address global environmental challenges.
Trump’s hardline stance on immigration, coupled with the “Muslim ban” that targeted several African nations, further strained U.S.-Africa relations during his first term. With the Trump administration focusing on restricting immigration and prioritizing national security concerns over humanitarian efforts, African migrants and refugees may face even greater challenges in the future, including more rigid border controls and less opportunity for asylum or resettlement.
In conclusion, the prospect of Trump returning to the White House in 2025 presents significant challenges for Africa. His policies, which often prioritize U.S. interests over international cooperation, threaten to undermine progress in Africa in key areas such as economic development, human rights, environmental sustainability, and immigration.
For African countries, the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s foreign policy requires careful preparation. While the Trump administration’s focus on bilateral relationships might offer opportunities for some countries, the overall trend is one of unpredictability and disregard for the broader international community’s interests. African nations will need to be more self-reliant, diversifying their global partnerships and strengthening regional cooperation to buffer against any negative consequences of Trump’s policies.
As Trump’s policies continue to shape U.S. foreign relations, Africa must be ready for a potential return to an era of capricious diplomacy.
Trump’s Isolationism and its impact on the African economy
One of the key features of Trump’s first term was his “America First” agenda, which prioritized U.S. economic and political interests over global cooperation. This isolationist approach is going to have a particularly negative impact on Africa, where U.S. support for development programs, trade agreements, and diplomatic partnerships has played a crucial role in fostering growth and stability.
Trump’s economic policies also leaned heavily on protectionism, including tariffs on foreign goods and a push for re-negotiated trade deals that were more favourable to the U.S. These policies, especially his trade war with China, contributed to a slowdown in global trade and negatively affected African countries that depend on exports of raw materials and agricultural products to global markets. While the president-elect already threatened to impose tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China, African countries are bound to be affected by the chain reaction.
During his first term, Trump repeatedly undermined multilateral agreements, including trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), often opting for bilateral negotiations over larger frameworks. For Africa, this meant less international support in key areas such as development aid, climate change mitigation, and public health. With the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) set to expire in 2025, African countries and companies benefiting from the legislation are likely to suffer huge economic losses.
The threat to Social Justice
Under Trump’s first presidency, the U.S. saw a pronounced shift toward conservative policies, with the Republican Party strongly advocating for traditional values on social issues. For African nations, this stance signaled a retreat from global advocacy for LGBTQ rights, emboldening anti-LGBTQ sentiment across Africa. In many African countries, queer individuals face significant discrimination, harassment, and legal persecution. Trump’s emphasis on religious conservatism and his administration’s opposition to progressive policies on human rights may have had a chilling effect on LGBTQ rights advocacy in Africa.
In a second stint at the Oval Office, Trump is likely to continue his policies of appeasing conservative religious groups, which could embolden anti-LGBTQ rhetoric and policies both in the U.S. and abroad. African LGBTQ activists, who often rely on international support to challenge regressive laws, would find it more difficult to advocate for change without strong U.S. support.
Jackson Okata is an award-winning independent journalist based in Nairobi, Kenya.
