By Diana Chiyangwah
Johannesburg, South Africa: Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, many countries that are major exporters of grains, oilseeds, fertilizers, and crude oil from these countries, are facing escalating global food insecurity and ongoing food price increases. South Africa is among them.
According to World Bank, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade-related policies imposed by countries have surged. The global food crisis has been partially made worse by the growing number of food restrictions put by countries with the goal of increasing domestic supply and reducing prices. As of 5 June 2023, twenty countries have implemented 27 food export bans, and 10 have implemented 14 export limiting measures.
South Africa’s agricultural sector and consumers are feeling the pinch, as they have trade links of agricultural commodities and input prices as well as price transmissions. The conflict has impacted trade relations between South Africa, Russia, and Ukraine and has impacted local food supplies. In 2021, both of these countries accounted for nearly 30% of global wheat exports, about 14% of global maize exports, roughly, 32% of global barley exports, almost 60 of global sunflower exports, and about 14% of global fertilizer exports.
Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, Russia is the 17th largest agricultural products supplier to South Africa, and Ukraine the 44th
In terms of domestic fertilizer production, South Africa does not have the capacity to produce fertilizer because of the lack of some input in minerals. Sihlobo also mentions that in value terms, agricultural imports from these two countries accounted for just 2,4% of South Africa’s total agricultural imports of US$5,9 billion in 2020.
“The major impact of disruptions in global agricultural markets will mainly be through price transmissions. South Africa is generally a net exporter of food and agricultural products and has sizable harvests in the past few years, with an expected good crop in the 2022/2022 season.” Sihlobo said. He elaborated that, in the case of domestic food prices, which are a major risk, the picture remains mixed.
In March 2023, Statistics South Africa, released figures on consumer inflation, that inched higher for the first time in four months from 6,9% in January to 7% in February. The latest figures indicate that the cost of living will continue going high. Headline consumer inflation cooled for a second consecutive month in May to 6,3% from 6,8% in April.
The Africa Inflation Observer tool by Africa Data Hub shows South Africa‘s consumer price inflation (CPI) rate for the full year 2022 was 7.04%.
In June, consumer price inflation contracted by 0,5%, however as much it this contract was somehow a kind of relief for consumers, food prices remain high. Dairy products including milk, eggs, and cheese, reported the largest rise in 14 years, while vegetable prices continue to rise. The latest inflation figure was also impacted by lower fuel prices.
The study conducted by Wits University in April 2023, suggests that There’s also a lack of collaboration from different stakeholders in the food system. For example, policymakers often view food insecurity as a rural issue. So, a majority of initiatives to address the problem focus on solutions related to food production.
Similarly, urban areas are also vulnerable to food insecurity as they depend more on the cash economy than rural areas. The study findings indicate that 20% (1 in 5) of South African households were food insecure and confirmed that food access in South Africa largely depends on socioeconomic status. The study showed high levels of social vulnerability in the country linked to food insecurity. Over 20.6% of the South Africans in our sample were socially vulnerable, and 20.4% were food insecure.
The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) for 2023, highlights that the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity and requiring urgent livelihood assistance is on the rise. The report indicates that over a quarter of a billion people are facing acute hunger, with economic shocks and the Ukraine war contributing to the increase.
